The Future of the Nile

 'The Future of the Nile’

Before a raging pandemic shook the world in early 2020, Egypt and Ethiopia were almost certainly headed to an intensified conflict over water resources, some even projecting war within the region. Over the last year, Ethiopia has suffered serious economic losses from the challenges presented by the pandemic, locust infestation challenging the agricultural sector and vey recently the severe violence between ethnic groups (Tigray and Oromo); Ethiopia most certainly cannot afford to go to war with Egypt. Effective water resource management and effective engagement of the international community in the creation of transboundary riparian law and resolution may ease the current tensions as well as the development of greater understanding of shared resources such as Transboundary Aquifer Mapping (TBA) (Altchenko and Villholth, 2013).

What does the GERD mean for Egypt and why is Egypt prepared to go war over it? The stakes are arguably high for Egypt if Ethiopia plans to fill the dam as fast as 5-7 years as stated, almost double what Egypt had agreed to. A desert state that sources over 90% of its water supply from the river Nile for its households, irrigation and agriculture is extremely vulnerable to drastic changes to its supply and contributes to virtually nothing in terms of precipitation inputs into the Nile and therefore relies intensely on the climates of upstream neighbouring countries and thus the flow downstream.  Egypt is particularly concerned that a drought may occur during the dramatic filling period of the dam and exacerbate water shortages for the population, arguing that the minimum provision of 55.5 billion cubic metres as allocated in the 1959 bilateral agreement must be reinforced to cover their bases. Hydrologist speculate that chances of below average rainfall or drought (defined as the inflow into the GERD as less than 37bcm per year) occurring during the filling time is a very low probability of around 7%, though it is important to note the number of caveats in the numbers produced by scientists in the analysis of the GERD (Heubl, 2020).  Major drought events have left life-long scars on Egypt and the projections of more frequent and intensified El-Nino events creating droughts in the upper catchment of the Nile, which may give Egypt feet to stand on in their stance against the speed at which Ethiopia plan to fill the dam. On the other hand, development economists such as Marc Jeuland from the University of North Carolina argue that its more of a ‘painful’ adjustment to the new reality and Egypt for decades benefited from more water than it uses.

Placing the economic value on the hydrological losses comes with much speculation feeding into the speculative nature of the press. Jeuland et al. (2020) argues that the misrepresentation of scientific reality has created a biased research outcome in which the desired risks or benefit of the GERD is cultivated for growth of popular media either for or against the dam, further hindering the ability for substantial progress to be made by national governments in their diplomatic resolution of transboundary water resources. Governance has shown to be a critical player in the management of transboundary resources, especially where pre-existing political instability remains. Despite this, there is hope for Egypt and Ethiopia, through the management of multi-year droughts, comprised filling times and collaborative scientific research within the region, they may just find that a ‘new normal’ will be created in which Ethiopia and Sudan will benefit greatly without significantly affecting water users in Egypt.  

 

References:

Altchenko, Y. and Villholth, K.  (2013). ‘Transboundary aquifer mapping and management in Africa: a harmonised approach’. Hydrogeology Journal, 21, pp. 1497-1517.

Heubl, B. (2020). ‘Why Ethiopia and Egypt can’t agree over hydro dam’. Blogpost: Engineering and Technology. Available at: https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/08/why-ethiopia-and-egypt-can-t-agree-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-africa-s-largest-hydroelectric-power-project/.

Wheeler, K., Jeuland, M., Hall, J., Zagona, E. and Whittington, D. (2020). ‘Understanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’. Nature Communications, 11, p.5222.