Political legacies in Climate Change

In this segment I wanted to explore a slightly newer and very debatable topic, climate-induced hydrpolitical events and answer the question: what is the future for both internal and external water conflict when the world’s most precious resource is becoming scarcer under climate forces?

The effect of climate change on water abundance and quality is very much noted in current academic literature, its affects are widespread, rippling and paramount affecting the water cycle in its entirety. Current hydrological models demonstrate three key findings and projections which directly or indirectly support the idea of climate-induced hydrpolitical events or wars; the variability of terrestrial water budgets, the intensification of the water cycle from regional to global scales and an upward trend in global annual evapotranspiration (Tang et al. 2016), there is much consensus within the scientific community that the validity of the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” pattern is prone to considerable uncertainties and often inconclusive evidence , this in itself is a potential cause of current and future tensions over water resources and the changing political climate. In this highly unpredictable world, what is supported by scientists is the high climate vulnerability observed in the East African region due to the dramatic increase in the unpredictability of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall.  The unpredictability coupled with the already shifting patterns in climate creating water shortages in the region are fuelling conflict, social unrest and migration (Moloney, 2020) as seen in the Yemen crisis early 2020.  According to the World Resource Institute, climate change coupled with rising populations will exacerbate competition for scarce freshwater and with “no water, politicians are going to try to get their hands on it and they might fight over it” (Moloney, 2020), making water resource management a key aspect of water related conflict mitigation and successful climate governance over the coming decades.

A slight caveat in this climate-induced conflict notion is that water wars stemming from intensified competition for the scarce resource dates back 5000 years and even led to the extinguishment four major civilisations. Notably, Mesopotamian civilisation, dating back more than 4000 years, experienced a 300 year drought as part of a disruptive changing climate which had created a series of up-ending emerging empires and migrations creating further pressure on resources (Ersek, 2019) elsewhere, those key resources being water and food. What modern society can take from this, is the intense pressure to preserve one’s natural resources even in the expense of others cannot purvey again is society is to thrive and persist through climate variability.   

Modern politics no longer lends itself to the conflicts of the ancient civilisations but what does persist is the non-abating nationalist sentiment which will create a stress point for politicians across nations (Boccaletti, 2018) and that’s just the thing about water, it doesn’t remain within national boundaries and therefore water management but also transcend political boundaries. Water insecurity will undoubtedly worsen and therefore have severe material impacts on cities, industries and agricultural productions; historically this had led to conflict and a new wave of climate-induced conflict will also rise if the incorrect political agenda internationally and nationally isn’t established to suit the needs of the present and future of everyone. Instead hope for successful water resource management is waning as a new wave of populist politicians emerge, creating complex issues for “sovereign underwriting, capital deployment by public institutions and sophisticated market regulations” (World Economic Forum, 2018). The populist promise is the strength of the nation and the protectionism of the state but where the climate is involved this sentiment cannot continue if we are to manage conflict but most of all mitigate the severe impacts of climate change.

 

References:

Tang, Q., Zhang, X., Pan, M. and X, Lui. (2016) Changes in the Global Terrestrial Water cycle: Wiley, New Jersey.

World Economic Forum. (2018) 3 Trends that could make water security a big test for politicians across nations. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/3-trends-that-could-make-water-security-a-big-test-for-politicians-across-nations

Moloney, A. (2020) ‘Water Wars: How conflict over resources are set to rise amid climate change’, World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/climate-change-impact-water-security-risk/

Ersek, V. (2019) ‘How Climate Change caused the World’s first ever empire to collapse’, World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/our-turn-next-a-brief-history-of-civilizations-that-fell-because-of-climate-change/

Boccaletti, G. (2018) ‘Water Security in a new age of Nationalism’, New Security Beat. Available at: https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/08/water-security-age-nationalism/